BULLYBALL TOP 25: WEEK 3
Welcome to what will be the third iteration of the BULLYBALL College Football Top 25, but the first edition on our new site.
Before we get into a breakdown of the rankings, let’s get into the breakdown of my formula.
For those I didn’t just scare off, yes, I have a mathematical system for this. Every offseason, I assign all FBS teams a “weight” based on returning production (and how good said production is), incoming transfers, and strength of schedule. From there, once the season begins, every game is given a certain point total for every game they play. How high a team’s weekly point total can get for a win depends on three factors: game location (home, away, neutral), their opponent’s ranking, and whether they were the favorite or underdog. From there, a game average is created, and teams begin to fall into place. So…with that all being said, let’s get into the rankings.
Top Dawgs
Georgia has had a stranglehold on the number one ranking for nearly a calendar year, and after a 24-14 come-from-behind win over South Carolina on Saturday, they stay firmly planted in the top spot. There’s a certain feeling with this Georgia team that they might actually be human. Their defense is great, but it’s not unbreakable (see: South Carolina’s first drive touchdown on a third down screen), and the offense continues to get off to slow starts, resulting in them trailing 14-3 at half.
Georgia will have its last non-conference game this coming Saturday when UAB visits Athens, and much has been made about how light Georgia has it this year. Georgia has been a team of two halves offensively, so it will be interesting to see what SEC teams can make Georgia’s offense as uncomfortable as South Carolina did and actually take advantage of it.
Biggest Riser: Penn State (11 to 5)
This has more to do with how razor thin the margins are right now rather than Penn State doing anything overly impressive, though their dominant win over Illinois in Champaign was great. For reference, the margin between Penn State at five and Alabama at eight is narrower than the margin between Florida State and Penn State, and FSU is not substantially higher than the Nittany Lions.
Biggest Faller: Tennessee (8 to 14)
It was an ugly week from Tennessee’s offense that confirmed a few things we already knew and some things we’re beginning to learn about the Vols: Joe Milton is not built to lead this offense close to the same way Hendon Hooker was, these receivers are a clear notch below Biletnikoff winner Jalen Hyatt and Cedric Tillman, and this offensive line is capable of losing this team games.
Prior to the Florida game, Milton was completing 66.7% of his passes, a good mark. The issue is they weren’t trying to push the ball down the field the way they did with Hooker. A 7.3 average depth of target shows that. Joe Milton versus Florida: 12.8 ADOT, 58.8% completion percentage. On the season as a whole, Milton has been awful passing down the field. Poor timing, poor placement, poor reads. Milton is 13-of-37 on passes 10+ yards downfield. Coupled with poor receiver play as they’ve contributed to four of those incompletions with drops, it’s a strange place to see a Heupel offense in.
On top of all of that, the defense that hasn’t grouped consecutive good performances together since Heupel arrived on campus, and that hasn’t changed this season. This Tennessee team is in major danger of being a team on the outside looking in for the top 25 at the rate things are going.
Team to Watch Out For: #7 Washington
I believe Washington is the best team in the PAC-12. They embody all things PAC-12 the same way Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma teams embodied all things Big XII. They have an occasionally good defense that has a ton of holes to exploit, but their offense is undeniably the best passing attack in all of college football. We’re only three weeks in, but Michael Penix Jr. is the clear Heisman front-runner at the moment.
Washington should have no issue with Cal at home and Arizona on the road, and they’ll get a bye week before welcoming Oregon to town on October 14. Their final month of the season is a dogfight with games at USC and Oregon State and home games against Utah and Washington State, but they’re my PAC-12 favorite right now.
The Next Best Five:
26. Wisconsin
It’s funny that Wisconsin starts off the next “best” five considering they’ve been among the biggest disappointments to start this season, but they’re on the outside looking in right now. They may have found something in the second half against Georgia Southern by actually giving Braelon Allen the ball and letting him work and taking the ball out of Tanner Mordecai’s hands more often. Perhaps we were a year too early on Wisconsin breaking out of that Big Ten West funk, but for now, they’ll hover as a top 20 to 30 team.
27. Miami
Miami has quietly put together a solid start to the season, highlighted by beating the brakes off of Texas A&M, hanging 48 points on the Aggies. While Miami has silently made their way this high up from a high 40s ranking to start the season, it’s potentially because of who they’ve played outside of A&M. Miami (OH) and Bethune-Cookman are food, and to Miami’s credit, they ate their food comfortably. The Canes theoretically should start the season 5-0 as they travel to Philly to face Temple and host Georgia Tech, both bad teams, before heading to Chapel Hill on October 14, where we’ll learn a lot about what this Miami squad can be. I find Miami to be a bit overrated, but we will see.
28. Washington State
Washington State is proof of the wild depth the PAC-12 has in their swan song as a conference. They won’t be the only PAC-12 team in this next three. Head coach Jake Dickert has built a fun, high octane offense in Pullman, and Cam Ward is the orchestrator of it all at quarterback. They, like Miami, started lower in our preseason rankings, but they’re climbing quickly and fiercely. A win at home over Wisconsin gave them a series sweep in a pair of games they weren’t favored in at all, and we’re going to see who can rise towards the top of the middle pack of the PAC-12 real quick. The Cougars get Oregon State at home and head to Los Angeles to play UCLA.
29. Texas A&M
Perennial disappointment, Texas A&M, finds themselves at 29 after starting the season at 18. The Aggies went into Miami as favorites and got smacked around by a team they’re much bigger than. The ground game continues to suffer, and Conner Weigman’s lack of feel for the big play has hindered what could be a good offense. Defensively, this unit continues to puzzle me. They have the pieces to be a very good unit, but they’ve been crushed by any offense with a pulse for the past two seasons. With the three A’s of the SEC West due up consecutively, it’s time for Jimbo to sink or swim one last time. If the past is any indicator, we’ll be seeing another sub-par campaign in College Station.
30. Colorado
From 71 to 30, Colorado is easily the biggest riser from preseason to now, but will the hype train roll on, or are they due for a Prime Time reality check? The Buffs will head to Eugene and face Oregon before welcoming Caleb Williams and USC to Boulder to close out September. Shedeur Sanders has been terrific to start the season in his first season at the FBS level, and the weapons and speed this offense possesses is tremendous. That being said, a lack of a ground game could pose a huge problem as the offense (and defense) will be without Travis Hunter for both the Oregon and USC games. As much as I find this team fun, fighting for a bowl berth is still a realistic expectation.